Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Why Headlines Stink

This headline is misleading: U.S. Foreclosure Filings Hit Record for Second Straight Month Bloomberg 5/13/2009

Here is Why:

Yes, from last April to this April foreclosures are way up, 32% according to RealtyTrac Inc. However, the number of foreclosed homes has been dropping from month to month. According to Realty Trac's own numbers the pace of foreclosures in slowing.

There have been signs that the housing market in most parts of the country is stabilizing (see earlier posts). Yesterday it was announced that the number of homes listed for sale by builders is at a 2 year low and inventory across the board is lower. Yes it will take time to clear the inventory but the inventory is shrinking which is a signal that real estate may be bottoming out or may have already done so in many areas.

Declines Slowing: - From the same Bloomberg article:

U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday there are signs the real estate market is recovering.

“Since January we’ve seen both home sales moving up and down around a relatively stable number and we are seeing the first signs that the rapid decline in home prices is starting to abate,” Donovan said at an NAR conference in Washington.

March prices fell less than in February and 17 states showed sales increases, yesterday’s NAR report showed, as buyers took advantage of mortgage rates below 5 percent. The Federal Reserve is purchasing mortgage-backed securities to spur lower rates.
There are still signs of trouble ahead.

While price declines are slowing, it’s likely foreclosures will increase in the coming months, according to Realty Trac.

“Lenders and servicers are beginning foreclosure proceedings on delinquent loans that had been delayed by legislative and industry moratoria,” Saccacio said.

Have we reached the bottom? Is now the time to buy? I found some great data and a great article that I will post later today.

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